Market overview

We maintain a large business portfolio across an integrated value chain and are exposed to crude oil, natural gas, hydrocarbon product and chemical prices (see “Risk factors”). This diversified portfolio helps us mitigate the impact of price volatility. Our annual planning cycle and periodic portfolio reviews aim to ensure that our levels of capital investment and operating expenses are appropriate in the context of a volatile price environment. We test the resilience of our projects and other opportunities against a range of crude oil, natural gas, oil product and chemical prices and costs. We also aim to maintain a strong balance sheet to provide resilience against weak market prices.

Global economic growth

After a sharp economic deceleration related to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the global economy has experienced a strong but uneven recovery in 2021. In its World Economic Outlook of January 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that global growth for 2021 has reached 5.9% – its strongest post-recession pace in 80 years. This recovery is uneven and largely reflects sharp rebounds in some major economies, most notably the USA and China, owing to substantial government policy support. In many emerging market and developing economies, inequalities in access to vaccines led to higher infection rates. This combined with a partial withdrawal of policy support have offset some of the benefits of strengthening external demand and rising commodity prices. Early policy support and vaccinations proved effective at mitigating some of the adverse economic and health impacts of COVID-19 during 2021. However, rising energy prices and supply disruptions have also resulted in broad-based inflation in the second half of 2021, notably in the USA and many emerging market and developing economies.

The global economic prospects remain highly uncertain. The world remains vulnerable to COVID-19 and the pandemic is continuing, owing to unequal access to vaccines, the reluctance of some to get vaccinated and the emergence of more infectious new variants such as Omicron. Socioeconomic challenges abound, including rising inflation, subdued employment growth, supply chain problems, setbacks to educational attainment, and climate change.

Confronted with such complex challenges, policy choice is difficult because a sharp increase in global debt levels during the pandemic has left limited room for manoeuvre. There is also an upside, because the pandemic has induced greater automation and workplace transformation, which could accelerate productivity growth. Structural investment plans implemented in Europe and the USA could also lift the growth outlook.

Global prices, demand and supply

The following table provides an overview of the main crude oil and natural gas price markers to which we are exposed:

Crude oil

Brent crude oil, an international benchmark, rebounded in 2021, supported by stronger demand and moderate supply growth. Brent traded between $50 per barrel (/b) and $86/b in 2021, ending the year at around $77/b and averaging $71/b for the whole year. This was about 70% higher than in 2020.

Global oil product demand rose by 5.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021 to 97.4 million b/d, after a sharp drop of around 8.5 million b/d in 2020, according to the IEA. The rebound was supported by successful vaccine roll-outs, especially in developed economies such as the USA, UK and EU. Road mobility has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, with COVID-19 travel restrictions being lifted and more people switching from public transport to cars. Air travel has begun to recover, but is still around 20-30% below pre-pandemic levels. This is probably attributable to remaining cross-border travel restrictions and public hesitancy about air travel during a global pandemic. Mirroring the broad economic recovery, demand for naphtha, LPG and ethane also picked up.

Global oil production has started to rise gradually as demand recovers. Annual growth in 2021 was about 1.5 million b/d, with OPEC+ making up most of the growth. From the second quarter of 2021, OPEC+ has been gradually unwinding the production cuts it implemented in 2020, with full unwinding expected by the second half of 2022. Outside OPEC+, US light tight oil (LTO) has dominated the growth, supported by the rebounding oil price. The number of US rotary oil rigs increased by more than 160% by December 2021, from the record low seen in August 2020. This, though, remained only around 60% of the 2019 average.

The OPEC+ production cuts have enabled a quick rundown of a record global oil inventory. The industry stock of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies, which had reached more than 3,200 million barrels by the middle of 2020, fell to around 2,760 million barrels by the end of 2021, a seven-year low.

The oil price largely followed an upward trend for most of the year. The Brent daily price passed the $70/b mark in June and $80/b in October. The strong price move reflected a tight market balance, resulting from modest supply growth and robust demand recovery. It also reflected the broad inflationary pricing environment for energy commodities such as coal and natural gas, in a period of economic recovery and supply chain challenges.

The price rally was at times interrupted by restrictions introduced in response to new waves of COVID-19, especially those caused by the Delta variant in the summer and Omicron towards the end of the year. In the final few weeks of 2021, the Omicron variant triggered the sharpest sell-off since April 2020, with Brent retreating almost $10/b in a single day at the height of the sell-off. Brent started regaining its strength towards the end of December, as a severe Omicron-induced demand disruption failed to materialise and supply concerns once again prevailed.

Looking forward, demand uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic remain a key uncertainty affecting the recovery of the global crude market. This is particularly so for aviation fuel which has been the most impacted by travel restrictions. But the extent of new COVID-related demand disruption could be moderated by booster programmes and the greater availability of more effective treatments for the virus.

At the same time, there has been increasing evidence of supply side risks. Upstream investment worldwide has slowed considerably during the pandemic. As a result, OPEC’s excess capacity will be declining. Meanwhile, US light tight oil is expected to be facing continued capital discipline pressures, restraining its growth. These factors will constrain the global fast response supply capacity to manage demand and supply disruptions, which may lead to price upside and volatilities.

Natural gas

Global demand for natural gas rose by an estimated 4.6% in 2021, after the COVID-19 pandemic caused consumption to decline by around 1.2% in 2020, according to the IEA. The 2021 rate represents a return to around the historical norms of growth for gas, and is roughly the same as the pre-pandemic growth rate of 2019. The revival of economic growth underpinned the industrial uptake of gas, especially in China. Underperformance of hydroelectric output in China and South America as well as weak renewables generation in Europe drove incremental power demand for gas. Colder-than-normal winters and hotter-than-usual summers also produced higher-than-expected demand for gas from commercial and residential users. Reduced supply from a number of sources led to shortages and record high prices for gas and LNG globally.

LNG imports were up 6.0% in 2021 after only a minor increase in 2020. The global LNG supply complex experienced upstream production deficits in 2021. Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Peru and Norway were down a combined 12 million tonnes, or 32%, from 2020. The addition of new liquefaction capacity was also limited in 2021, although utilisation of projects that started in 2020 improved, which provided some support for supply growth.

European gas prices rose to unprecedented levels by the middle of 2021, with the average Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price more than five times that of 2020. The TTF price reached a peak of almost $60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). TTF and European spot gas hub prices broke above oil parity by the third quarter and continued well above that level for the rest of the year. Prices were supported by an extended heating season that left gas storage at a deficit coming out of winter and prompted fears of scarcity as indigenous production slumped and pipeline and LNG imports were restrained. Record coal and carbon prices also contributed to the price surge.

Asian spot LNG prices, as reflected by the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), responded to the tight European market conditions with bids at a premium to TTF for most of the year. This was in order to secure LNG supplies for China and South Korea, where demand was higher than expected. Average JKM prices ended the year up more than 300% from 2020 and up more than 200% from 2019. Long-term contracts indexed to oil prices tracked the wider crude complex upward during the year but did not increase at the same rate as spot gas and LNG prices.

Strong Asian and European prices incentivised full US LNG export production. This helped strengthen Henry Hub cash prices to an average of $3.81 per MMBtu for 2021, up more than 90% year-on-year. After trading in a narrow range of around $3 per MMBtu for the first half of 2021, Henry Hub prices rose above $5 per MMBtu by the end of the third quarter. The upstream investment cuts of 2020 continued into 2021. Production did not keep pace with rebounding demand, heightened by a combined 34% increase in LNG and Mexico pipeline exports from a year ago.

Looking ahead, we expect that the high gas prices in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific will go down to more normal levels. This is because we anticipate that global gas inventories will eventually replenish as production recovers in response to the current elevated price levels. Price developments, though, are highly uncertain.

We believe gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia will be increasingly influenced by European gas storage levels and by competition with Asia for LNG imports, particularly flexible supply from the USA. Overall LNG supply is expected to recover and increase as new liquefaction capacity is added in the USA in 2022. But the global LNG market will remain structurally tight as a relatively small amount of incremental supply will come to market over the coming years.

In the USA, Henry Hub prices are expected to moderate from 2021 as production increases in response to higher gas prices as well as oil prices (which support associated gas production in the Permian basin). But upward pressures on gas prices are also expected as LNG exports, Mexico pipeline exports and economic growth stimulate demand.

Crude oil and natural gas price assumptions

Our ability to deliver competitive returns and pursue commercial opportunities ultimately depends on the accuracy of our price assumptions (see “Risk factors”). We use a rigorous assessment of short-, medium- and long-term market uncertainties to determine what ranges of future crude oil and natural gas prices to use in project and portfolio evaluations. Market uncertainties include, for example, future economic conditions, geopolitics, actions by major resource holders, production costs, technological progress and the balance of supply and demand. See also Note 9 to the “Consolidated Financial Statements”.

Refining margins

Gross refining margins improved during 2021, especially during the second and third quarters. This is because demand for oil products recovered significantly as economies rebounded and transport use increased with the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions. Demand for kerosene for aviation remained below pre-pandemic levels because varying levels of international travel restrictions remained in place in 2021. Despite the Omicron variant of COVID-19, demand recovery continued during the fourth quarter.

Industry utilisation showed some recovery, but in 2021 there were further announcements that refineries would fully or partially close on a permanent basis. Construction of new capacity continued during the year, especially in the Middle East and Asia.

Refining margins for the next few years are expected to be supported by demand returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. The continued addition of new refinery capacity, often integrated with chemicals production, will put downward pressure on margins during the next few years.

Petrochemical margins

Cracker margins were volatile in 2021. This was because of supply interruptions and demand increases as COVID-19 lockdown restrictions eased. Overall margins were higher than in 2020, except in Asia. Chinese demand recovered quickly from the pandemic, but petrochemical supply was constrained by power restrictions that affected manufacturing centres, logistics issues within China because of COVID-19, and global logistics issues. Asia cracker margins were down slightly from 2020 because of the balance of supply and demand, and rising prices for energy, crude oil and naphtha feedstock. US ethane cracker margins were supported by disruption due to winter storm Uri in February and March and to a lesser extent by interruptions caused by Hurricane Ida in August and September. West European cracker margins were supported by the US weather events and strong domestic demand, which offset rising crude and natural gas prices for the majority of 2021.

The outlook for petrochemical margins in 2022 and beyond depends on feedstock costs and the balance of supply and demand. Demand for petrochemicals will be affected by the spread of COVID-19 as new variants emerge, and the extent of recovery from the pandemic. Supply of petrochemicals will depend on the net capacity effect of new builds and plant closures (taking into account any delays or cancellations in building new plants or closing old ones). Product prices reflect the prices of raw materials, which are closely linked to crude oil and natural gas prices. The balance of all these factors will drive margins.

The statements in this “Market overview” section, including those related to our price forecasts, are forward-looking statements based on management’s current expectations and certain material assumptions and, accordingly, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein. See “About this Report” and “Risk factors”.